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Grand Sumo’s 2024 season begins this weekend with the hatsu basho or New Year’s tournament. The 15-day event goes down at the historic Ryōgoku Kokugikan in Tokyo and it just might feature a new yokozuna being crowned.
Read below for my preview of the tournament and the five storylines I am most excited for.
1. Is Kirishima the real yokozuna in waiting?
Sumo has a yokozuna problem. Terunofuji, the sport’s sole yokozuna has missed most of the last two year’s tournaments due to injuries. And he seems poised to retire from the sport. Previously he said he was waiting to win another two tournaments before calling it a day, but honestly, I think what’s keeping him around is the fact that if he left there would be a giant yokozuna shaped void left in the sport. The pressure to represent that elite class of wrestler, along with the sport itself (and to a degree, Japan itself) is likely keeping Terunofuji from walking away, despite his crippling knee and back pain.
Last year, Takakeisho had a chance of ascending to the rank of yokozuna (and lifting some of the pressure of Terunofuji), but he faltered at the last hurdle.
Now, a new challenger is in position to claim the ultimate prize and become only the 74th yokozuna since the 16th century. That man is Kirishima.
Kirishima was the best rikishi on the planet last year, earning more wins in 2023 than anyone else (despite missing a few days due to injury). He won two tournaments, scooped two technique prizes and earned promotion to ozeki.
After winning the Kyushu basho in November (with aplomb) he now has a chance to win back-to-back tournaments. Doing so would give him the base qualification for a yokozuna promotion. Those two wins, along with how dominating Kirishima has looked at times (and considering there isn’t any controversy around his character or fighting style) makes me think he’s a shoe-in for the promotion if he claims the Emperor’s Cup in Tokyo this month.
Kirishima won’t have any easy path to the cup, though. Terunofuji is suggesting that he is fit enough to compete. Takakeisho and others (including Kirishima’s top frenemy Hoshoryu) will likely be hoping to spoil the party, too.
2. Can Cocaine Bear and the Peach Prince shake up sumo’s san’yaku?
The banzuke for January included two big additions to the upper-rankings. Takayasu and Ura are our new komusubi. For Takayasu (or ‘Cocaine Bear’ as someone on r/sumomemes once called him) this is a return to the san’yaku after injuries ruined his tenure as ozeki. For Ura, this is his first time reaching the upper rankings. The pink-clad Ura also becomes the first wrestler ever to make the san’yaku after clawing back from demotion all the way down to sumo’s fifth division (which was caused by injuries).
Both men getting this promotion late in their careers makes me quite rueful of what their injuries have robbed us of. I can’t help but imagine how dominating a completely fit Takayasu might have been at ozeki, especially amidst the struggles of the yokozuna and other ozeki around him at that time. And if Ura had not needed so much work to save his knees, he may have been a komusubi years ago.
Watching how both these men perform in the upper rankings at this stage of their careers will be fascinating. Based on their performances last year, I think Takayasu is likely to make more of a home there than Ura. Ura is one of the most fun wrestlers to watch in sumo, but he’s struggled against top tier opposition throughout his career.
3. Another ozeki?
Last year we had an ozeki crisis on our hands. But those days seem long ago with Kirishima, Hoshoryu and Takakeisho winning and representing the ranking in ways that are expected of them.
At times last year Takakeisho was the lone ozeki, while also dealing with injuries and a kadoban status. But in January all three ozeki are coming off kachi-koshi. All three appear healthy. And one (as we’ve already mentioned) looks prime for a yokozuna run.
And we might even have another ozeki joining their ranks soon.
Kotonowaka, the grandson of 53rd yokozuna Kotozakura, was excellent in 2023. He’s currently on a 12 tournament kachi-koshi streak, second only to Hoshoryu, and he’s coming off an 11-win performance (which earned him a Fighting Spirit Award) in Kyushu.
To earn 33 wins over three tournaments (the base qualification for ozeki), Kotonowaka will need 13 wins in January. The most he’s ever achieved is 12. However, even if he does reach that mark he may still not get the promotion, given that he took less than double-digit wins in September (he went 9-6 in his debut as sekiwake).
I don’t expect Kotonowaka (or ‘Double Boob’ on r/sumomemes) to hit 13 wins this month, but I think he’s a lock for double-digit wins, setting up a strong ozeki possibility in March. Whether it happens sooner or later, though, the 26-year-old is one of the brightest young wrestlers on the circuit and will be a fun watch this tournament.
4. How good is Onosato?
For the second time in two years we are going to have a top division debutante who is so young and inexperienced (at the pro level) that his hair hasn’t grown enough to be styled into the traditional top knot. 19-year-old phenom Hakuoho achieved that feat last year (and almost won a championship in his first ever top division tournament), before suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery.
This year Onosato does the honours. The young, but massive man, has been promoted to makuuchi after just four tournaments in Grand Sumo. In November he just missed out on a juryo championship, losing to a very motivated Kotoshoho in a play-off. But despite that he still comes to makuuchi with an impressive early career record of 34-10.
One of the main stories of 2023 was how impressive young wrestlers Hakuoho, Atamifuji and Gonoyama were, especially Atamifuji who came within two bouts of winning two championships.
Now it’s time to see if Onosato will sink or swim. At this low a ranking, I think he’ll do just fine. But it won’t be easy for him for long.
5. Can Miyagino rebound from a disappointing 2023?
69th yokozuna Hakuho, the greatest rikishi and one of the greatest athletes of all time, had his official retirement ceremony last year. When his top knot was removed he ceased being Hakuho and became the 13th Miyagino, named for the stable he is now master over.
2023 featured a lot of hype around Miyagino wrestlers with Hokuseiho and Hakuoho debuting in the makuuchi. However, it’s not gone very well for the ‘Michael Jordan of Sumo’ since then. Hakuoho impressed but was then injured and Hokuseiho has been frustrating to watch as he failed to meet his potential in his first year of top level competition. Joining Hakuoho on the injury list were the diminutive Kiho and the ever-popular Enho.
In January, those injured Miyagino wrestlers are due to return to competition. It will be interesting to see how they fare and whether Hakuho’s stable can bring home it’s first Emperor’s Cup since he himself stepped away from the ring.
For more sumo content, including deep dives and analysis on wrestlers past and present, subscribe to the Sumo Stomp! Substack today.
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